Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
