A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
